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Make A Deal make a deal VideoLet's Make a Deal/03 December/Costumed contestants compete for cash and prizes
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Popular Shows 1. Grey's Anatomy 2. SEAL Team 3. A player who stays with the initial choice wins in only one out of three of these equally likely possibilities, while a player who switches wins in two out of three.
An intuitive explanation is that, if the contestant initially picks a goat 2 of 3 doors , the contestant will win the car by switching because the other goat can no longer be picked, whereas if the contestant initially picks the car 1 of 3 doors , the contestant will not win the car by switching.
This would be true if the host opens a door randomly, but that is not the case; the door opened depends on the player's initial choice, so the assumption of independence does not hold.
These are the only cases where the host opens door 3, so if the player has picked door 1 and the host opens door 3 the car is twice as likely to be behind door 2.
The key is that if the car is behind door 2 the host must open door 3, but if the car is behind door 1 the host can open either door.
Another way to understand the solution is to consider the two original unchosen doors together. So the player's choice after the host opens a door is no different than if the host offered the player the option to switch from the original chosen door to the set of both remaining doors.
I'll help you by using my knowledge of where the prize is to open one of those two doors to show you that it does not hide the prize.
You can now take advantage of this additional information. Your choice of door A has a chance of 1 in 3 of being the winner.
I have not changed that. But by eliminating door C, I have shown you that the probability that door B hides the prize is 2 in 3.
Vos Savant suggests that the solution will be more intuitive with 1,, doors rather than 3. After the player picks a door, the host opens , of the remaining doors.
On average, in , times out of 1,,, the remaining door will contain the prize. Intuitively, the player should ask how likely it is that, given a million doors, he or she managed to pick the right one initially.
Stibel et al  proposed that working memory demand is taxed during the Monty Hall problem and that this forces people to "collapse" their choices into two equally probable options.
They report that when the number of options is increased to more than 7 choices 7 doors , people tend to switch more often; however, most contestants still incorrectly judge the probability of success at Vos Savant wrote in her first column on the Monty Hall problem that the player should switch.
During —, three more of her columns in Parade were devoted to the paradox. The discussion was replayed in other venues e.
In an attempt to clarify her answer, she proposed a shell game  to illustrate: "You look away, and I put a pea under one of three shells. Then I ask you to put your finger on a shell.
Then I simply lift up an empty shell from the remaining other two. As I can and will do this regardless of what you've chosen, we've learned nothing to allow us to revise the odds on the shell under your finger.
Vos Savant commented that, though some confusion was caused by some readers' not realizing they were supposed to assume that the host must always reveal a goat, almost all her numerous correspondents had correctly understood the problem assumptions, and were still initially convinced that vos Savant's answer "switch" was wrong.
When first presented with the Monty Hall problem, an overwhelming majority of people assume that each door has an equal probability and conclude that switching does not matter.
Most statements of the problem, notably the one in Parade Magazine, do not match the rules of the actual game show  and do not fully specify the host's behavior or that the car's location is randomly selected.
Although these issues are mathematically significant, even when controlling for these factors, nearly all people still think each of the two unopened doors has an equal probability and conclude that switching does not matter.
The problem continues to attract the attention of cognitive psychologists. The typical behavior of the majority, i. Experimental evidence confirms that these are plausible explanations that do not depend on probability intuition.
A show master playing deceitfully half of the times modifies the winning chances in case one is offered to switch to "equal probability". Among these sources are several that explicitly criticize the popularly presented "simple" solutions, saying these solutions are "correct but Some say that these solutions answer a slightly different question — one phrasing is "you have to announce before a door has been opened whether you plan to switch".
However, the probability of winning by always switching is a logically distinct concept from the probability of winning by switching given that the player has picked door 1 and the host has opened door 3.
As one source says, "the distinction between [these questions] seems to confound many". For example, assume the contestant knows that Monty does not pick the second door randomly among all legal alternatives but instead, when given an opportunity to pick between two losing doors, Monty will open the one on the right.
In this situation, the following two questions have different answers:. For this variation, the two questions yield different answers.
If they want to switch they have to do a challenge! Challenge: — these are FUN!!! I have a bowl or container of strips of paper with different challenges written on them.
Of course all these challenges are done in front of everyone else which gets the whole room roaring with laughter!!! Once the challenge is complete you can hand them their prize.
The contestant sits down and the next trivia question is asked. Some contestants actually ended up with a donkey or pig, or other rotten prize, and some actually came out with cars, cash or jewelry.
Near the end of every show, Monty would give out cash prizes to anyone carrying whatever it was he asked for. You should see some of the strange things people carry!
The costumes,the prizes both clunky and fancy ,the barkerlike style of Monty Hall-if there was ever a game show that created a carnival atmosphere,"Let's Make A Deal" was it.
In this game show,no real intelligence was needed,only the ability to attract Monty's attention to play fast-moving guessing games in a shot to win big cash,merchandise,and ultimately a shot at the "Big Deal Of The Day" hidden behind one of the three doors.
It was loud and frenetic,but millions loved the show,and it became TV's biggest daytime hits that stayed on the air for the next two decades.
Then from there moved over to ABC-TV for the next seven years from December 30, until its last hurrah on the network on July 9, Also to add here,the success of "Let's Make A Deal" prompted a prime-time version for NBC from May through September ,and also a prime-time version of the show when it moved to ABC from February, until August,,after which the show when into syndication from until ,with Monty Hall as the host.
However,Hilton held the reins by October of ,and the following month Hilton was gone,and Monty Hall returned to his old format.
The show again was absent for the next eighteen years until a new format was introduced in October of ,when the show was revived for CBS Daytime,and also had a new host No need to waste time endlessly browsing—here's the entire lineup of new movies and TV shows streaming on Netflix this month.
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